The Fallacy of Failsafe Betting Beliefs: What You’ll Learn
- Understanding the House Edge: Readers will learn how the inherent house edge guarantees that casinos profit in the long run, regardless of any betting strategy employed by players.
- Debunking Common Betting Myths: The article will expose popular failsafe betting strategies, such as the Martingale system, and explain why they ultimately fail to benefit the player.
- The Role of Chance and Probability: Readers will gain insight into the true randomness of casino games and how probability undermines the concept of a “guaranteed” winning strategy.
- The Psychology of Gambling: This article will explore the psychological factors that lead players to believe in failsafe betting beliefs despite the odds being against them.
- Real-World Examples and Anecdotes: By providing real-world examples and anecdotes, the article will illustrate how these beliefs manifest in casinos and why they ultimately result in laughter from the casino side.
Do you know a betting strategy that guarantees to work? Are there “influencers” you follow that insist they never lose? Does a failsafe betting strategy actually exist?
Unfortunately, surefire methods for making money when gambling are myths. That’s not to say there aren’t strategies that minimize risk or ones that people trust to increase payout amounts, but they are far from failsafe.
Think of it like this: a basic Blackjack strategy reduces the house edge and can lead to better outcomes but standing on a 16 when a dealer shows a 6 doesn’t mean you’ll win, but it helps.
This article will take a look at the myths about betting systems, flaws in gambling strategies, the house edge and the gambler’s fallacy.
Let’s get started.
Image Credit: 360VP/Shutterstock
Is There Such a Thing as Safe Gambling?
No gambling strategy is truly failsafe as casino games are designed to have results that are random.
For example, table games have an element of randomness built into how the game is played. While there are strategies to improve the outcome, nothing is certain. Here are some examples:
- Craps: Each roll of the dice in Craps will produce a random outcome
- Blackjack: The next card out of the shoe is unknown. While there are strategies to enhance the chance of winning, nothing is guaranteed
- Roulette: The spinning wheel and ball make each outcome random and independent of any other spin.
Slot machines and video-based gambling options use a Random Number Generator (RNG) to determine the outcome. This algorithm ensures each spin of the slot machine reels or video poker card is completely random. Casinos must prove this to regulators to ensure licensing and compliance.
For online gambling, the RNG is what determines the result (unless you hit on 20 in Blackjack, that loss is on you). Legitimate gaming sites will also have licenses and certifications from government regulators to ensure fairness on each game.
The Casino’s House Edge
Casinos ensure a house edge is always present. This means that the system is set up to draw in more money than it gives out.
For an example of what the house edge means for the player, let’s take a look at American Roulette.
In Roulette, there are 36 numbers as well as a 0 and 00, therefore, the Roulette wheel has 38 potential pockets for the ball to land in. Any number has a 1-in-38 chance of being the winner. What does a winning number pay? 35:1, not 38:1. That’s the house edge.
Every game has a built-in house edge.
Why do Myths about Gambling Systems Persist?
There are people who believe their gambling system is the one that’s guaranteed to work. Others think they can recognize patterns and bet at the right times. And have you heard the story about the person who wore their lucky mismatched socks, wore their lucky hat and held their lucky penny before winning the jackpot?
None of these guarantees more money or increased winning potential, but myths continue to persist. Why?
Misunderstanding of Probability
Too often, many mistake short-term wins as patterns. They’ll approach a Roulette table and place their chips on a spot recalling the last time they kept playing that way they couldn’t lose. Then they start losing.
Same thing with Craps. The player won consistently with one strategy before, only to have the same strategy blow up in their face.
Probability doesn’t change based on past results. Just because something worked before, it doesn’t mean it will happen again. Casino games are designed to be random so it’s important to recognize that a pattern in gambling is truly nothing more than a coincidence.
